While the economic impact of Covid-19 on global economies has not yet abated, the energy crisis and disruptions in commodity goods markets caused by the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to weigh both human and economic.
In this context, the extension of the 120-day cereal agreement between Russia and Ukraine, obtained through remarkable Turkish mediation, was a small breath of fresh air for many countries by allowing the export of more than 12 million tonnes cereals (corn, wheat, rapeseed and sunflower oil). The top five grain destinations were Spain, Turkey, China, Italy and the Netherlands.
Economically, Turkey maintains its resilience despite the devastating terrorist attacks that occurred in Istanbul and Gaziantep with a two-day gap in November. The results for the first half of 2022 have reassured the Turkish business community and many international observers. With the end of the year approaching, growth forecasts are becoming clearer. In its latest forecasts, the OECD expects +5.3% growth in 2022 and +3% growth in 2023 for the Turkish economy.
Inflation continued to rise in September. The consumer price index rose by +3.54% month on month and +85.51% year on year. The producer price index increased by +7.83% month on month and +157.69% year on year.
As expected, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey lowered its main policy rate for the fourth consecutive month. This is once again a 150 basis point drop in its interest rates. The main policy rate is now at 9%. With the initial target of a single-digit interest rate achieved, no further central bank action is expected in the near term.